March Madness predictions 2019: Winner for every game in NCAA tournament
Shawn WindsorIt’s that time again. The NCAA tournament bracket is back. Which means I’m about to stubbornly pick Michigan to beat Michigan State one more time …
… in the Final Four.
The fourth time is the charm, right?
Actually, no. I’m not going to do that. But I will pick U-M and MSU to get past the first weekend (Tom Izzo can thank me later).
OK, let’s get started – and no, I’m not throwing darts at my bracket to justify my March Madness choices. But I will end up using a lot of chalk.
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NCAA tournament first round
East Region
• No. 1 Duke over No. 16 North Dakota State (the Bison will beat North Carolina Central in the play-in game): Easiest pick in the bracket. Zion Williamson could jump over Mt. Rushmore – yes, the monument is in South Dakota. For our purposes, the Dakotas count as a single state.
• No. 9 Central Florida over No. 8 Virginia Commonwealth: Florida is the more interesting state.
• No. 5 Mississippi State over No. 12 Liberty: Five seeds over 12 seeds is a good upset spot, but a school that calls itself Liberty doesn’t offer liberty. That’s like telling someone you’re cool.
• No. 4 Virginia Tech over No. 13 Saint Louis: Go with the Hokies.
More:NCAA tournament bracket tips: Everything you need to win
• No. 11 Belmont over No. 6 Maryland: The Terps can’t shoot, are coached by Mark Turgeon and MSU fans are irritated Maryland is slotted for the Regional in D.C. – a • potentially unfair home-court advantage. Well, worry no more.
• No. 3 LSU over No. 14 Yale: Yale can’t rule everything.
• No. 7 Louisville over No. 10 Minnesota: The Gophers played better down the stretch. Richard Pitino is still the coach.
• No. 2 Michigan State over No. 15 Bradley: The Spartans don’t blow many teams out. They do here.
South Region
• No. 1 Virginia over No. 16 Gardner-Webb: The Cavaliers can finally score.
• No. 8 Ole Miss over No. 9 Oklahoma: Mississippi is the more interesting state.
• No. 12 Oregon over No. 5 Wisconsin: The Ducks quickness is too much. The Big Ten takes a hit.
• No. 13 California-Irvine over No. 4 Kansas State: Call it a hunch. The Wildcats often struggle to shoot.
• No. 11 Saint Mary’s (Calif.) over No. 6 Villanova: The defending champs are playing better. Saint Mary’s plays defense, as it showed by beating Gonzaga last week.
• No. 3 Purdue over No. 14 Old Dominion: The Boilermakers looked discombobulated in Chicago in the Big Ten tournament. They get it together here.
• No. 10 Iowa over No. 7 Cincinnati: The Bearcats may have the better team. We deserve another game of watching Fran McCaffery make angry faces on the side of the court.
• No. 2 Tennessee over No. 15 Colgate: The Vols looked like the best team in the country for a minute, slowed down, then rebounded to finish the year, until Auburn. Still, former Freep writer, Joe Rexrode, now a columnist in Nashville, digs this team. Say, hey, Joe.
Midwest Region
• No. 1 North Carolina over No. 16 Iona: Not going to happen.
• No. 8 Utah State over No. 9 Washington: Maybe if Klay Thompson were still playing for … no, that was Washington State. Never mind. Still, take Utah State.
• No. 5 Auburn over No. 12 New Mexico State: The Tigers just won the SEC tournament. They are on a roll. At least for now.
• No. 4 Kansas over No. 13 Northeastern: This is Bill Self’s most pedestrian team in a few years, largely because of injury. He’s got to coach. He shows he can … for now.
• No. 6 Iowa State over No. 11 Ohio State: The Big Ten loses another. The Cyclones have too much firepower.
• No. 4 Houston over No. 14 Georgia State: The Cougars are a team no one wants to face. That’s a cliché. Usually, it’s a good idea not to go with clichés. But not here. Houston is good.
• No. 7 Wofford over No. 10 Seton Hall: It’s nice to see the little guy favored over a former power. (Yes, that was a generation ago. But, still …)
• No. 2 Kentucky over No. 15 Abilene Christian: I spent an afternoon at ACU once right out of high school. A school employee admonished me for holding my girlfriend’s hand. The Wildcats beat back the rush to return us to the Middle Ages.
West Region
• No. 1 Gonzaga over No. 16 Prairie View A&M – the winner over Farleigh Dickinson in the play-in game: Again, not going to happen.
• No. 8 Syracuse over No. 9 Baylor: That zone, man. Ask MSU about it.
• No. 13 Murray State over No. 5 Marquette: We need this. We want this. It’s not often college basketball has actual stars. This year it has two: Williamson and Ja Morant. It would be nice to see him play more than once.
• No. 4 Florida State over No. 13 Vermont: Too much size and speed.
• No. 6 Buffalo over No. 11 Arizona State – winner over St. John’s in the play-in game: The darlings of pre-tournament hype get their chance to show us why.
• No. 3 Texas Tech over No. 14 Northern Kentucky: Bob Knight is not in Lubbock anymore. That’s a good thing.
• No. 10 Florida over No. 7 Nevada: Everyone loves Nevada. Florida plays defense. Take the defense.
• No. 2 Michigan over No. 15 Montana: I’m not sure Montana will score a single basket.
NCAA tournament second round
East
• No. 1 Duke over No. 9 UCF: Come on. Be serious. No matter how much you might want it to happen.
• No. 4 Virginia Tech over No. 5 Mississippi State: Not sure the state of Virginia deserves it, but there are many fine people in Virginia.
• No. 11 Belmont over No. 3 LSU: A double-digit seed will make the Sweet 16. Might as well be here.
• No. 2 MSU over No. 7 Louisville: Matt McQuaid didn’t play when the Spartans lost to the Cardinals before the holidays. You can see the difference he makes. After three long years, Tom Izzo finally gets the second weekend.
South
• No. 1 Virginia over No. 8 Ole Miss: This is the year, Virginia fans. A second weekend awaits.
• No. 12 Oregon over No. 13 UC-Irvine: Because the Ducks. That’s why.
• No. 11 Saint Mary’s over No. 3 Purdue: The Boilermakers can’t put two games together.
• No. 2 Tennessee over No. 10 Iowa: So long, Fran. The Vols have too much senior talent.
Midwest
• No. 1 North Carolina over No. 8 Washington State: This is beginning to feel like one of those Roy Williams teams that we should’ve seen coming.
• No. 4 Kansas over No. 5 Auburn: Bill Self proves he can do more than recruit.
• No. 6 Iowa State over No. 3 Houston: The Cougars lose a tough game in the second round again. This time it isn’t a buzzer beater.
• No. 2 Kentucky over No. 7 Wofford: An upset here would be grand, of course. But give John Calipari credit. He isn’t rolling out three lottery picks as he usually does.
West
• No. 1 Gonzaga over No. 8 Syracuse: Yeah, that zone. Gonzaga can shoot.
• No. 5 Murray State over No. 4 Florida State: This is more wishful thinking than anything.
• No. 6 Buffalo over No. 3 Texas Tech: Why not roll with the pre-tournament darlings? Plus, Buffalo is damn good.
• No. 2 Michigan over No. 10 Florida: The Wolverines get revenge for the bowl game loss. Not that anyone in Gainesville cares.
Sweet 16
East
• No. 1 Duke over No. 4 Virginia Tech: This is the benefit of earning the No. 1 overall seed.
• No. 2 Michigan State over No. 11 Belmont: This is karma for MSU’s bracket placing. Michigan fans, forgetting last year’s bracket implosion that helped the Wolverines, decry the Spartans’ fortune.
South
• No. 1 Virginia over No. 12 Oregon: Like I said, this is all part of the plan.
• No. 2 Tennessee over No. 11 Saint Mary’s: The Vols’ experience puts them over the top.
Midwest
• No. 1 North Carolina over No. 4 Kansas: Somehow it always comes down to the blue bloods. The Tar Heels’ blood is a little bluer.
• No. 2 Kentucky over No. 6 Iowa State: Again, one bracket always comes down to iconic programs in a regional final.
West
• No. 1 Gonzaga over No. 12 Murray State: Morant is the best player on the floor. One NBA player can’t beat three. Ask LeBron.
• No. 2 Michigan over No. 6 Buffalo: John Beilein’s team is liberated in the NCAA tournament. And even with another scoring drought, it won’t matter.
Elite Eight
East
• No. 1 Duke over No. 2 Michigan State: I think the Spartans could win this game. It’s time for Izzo to beat Coach K. It’s what the basketball gods are calling for. Sometimes victories come when we least expect them. Except … Williamson. Also: it’s better for you, Spartan fan, if I pick against MSU.
South
• No. 2 Tennessee over No. 1 Virginia: Trust what you saw the first couple of months of the season. Trust that the Vols’ combination of pro talent and seniors is a Final Four combination. Don’t keep trusting Virginia to make shots.
Midwest
• No. 1 North Carolina over No. 2 Kentucky: It’s been a while since Williams has cried. That’s going to happen this year. Just not after this game. No team has played better basketball the last month.
West
• No. 1 Gonzaga over No. 2 Michigan: Again, the Wolverines have a real shot here. And setting up another rematch with MSU would be … more than the state could handle. But those scoring droughts … they finally undo U-M.
Final Four
• No. 1 Duke over No. 1 Gonzaga: Just as the Tar Heels avenge an earlier loss to Kentucky, so do the Blue Devils in beating Gonzaga. The game is close again. Williamson bullies his way to the glass to make the play, either a putback or a block.
• No. 1 North Carolina over No. 2 Tennessee: Another classic matchup of future pros and senior experience.
Championship game
• No. 1 North Carolina over No. 1 Duke: Why? Because someone has to stop this. It’s up to Williams. His squad had a chance to win when the teams met in the ACC tournament last week. This time, they make the plays.