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Learn More8 Expert Picks
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Past Picks
The Houston Astros bats came to life in a big way in yesterday’s victory over the White Sox. Yainier Diaz had a multi-hit game, and look for another successful day at the plate today against White Sox starter Davis Martin. He had a hit in both at bats against Martin on May 3rd. Play Diaz over on total bases tonight.
Jeremy Pena is on an extended heater. In fact, he's been great all season, but in the last 16 games, Pena is hitting .409 with a .435 on-base percentage and he's hitting leadoff atop an Astros' order getting to face the White Sox at home. Good chance to score at least one run.
Playing under eight on Betrivers (-141), but would still play this number. Chicago returns from a nine game road trip, where Jesus Luzardo carved them up yesterday. Pete Crow-Armstrong is back and Andrew Heaney really struggled last time out vs. this lineup, plus his underlying metrics aren't encouraging. The weather is going to depress fly balls and Jameson Taillon, a pitcher who allows more fly balls, can likely get deeper into the game with that help. He gets into trouble when he allows the long ball, with two or more HR allowed in three games, which coincide with his two blowup starts. Pittsburgh is league worst on the road, and we need a 9th run to beat us, I really like that under eight.
The Cubs pounded Andrew Heaney on April 29, homering twice and plating four runs as the lefty failed to strike out anyone before leaving. Heaney walked three over 4.2 innings. For the season, Heaney has a much higher expected ERA (4.70) than actual ERA (3.23). Collectively, current Cubs own a .904 OPS against Heaney. Look for Jameson Taillon, who's given up five earned runs over his last four starts, to outpitch Heaney and hand the Cubs a lead through five.
It the same drill for the Pirates in games started by capable Andrew Heaney (perhaps soon to be dangled at the trade deadline to any contender looking for a rotation piece), who has been mostly effective with a 3.24 ERA but usually doesn't last much beyond the fifth inning. Moreover, he was dealing with a minor calf issue when he left the game last weekend vs. the Phils. The Bucs have won five of six, but their bullpen has proven unreliable all season, and ex-Pirate Jameson Taillon (1.75 ERA his last four starts) should pick up where he left off last time for the Cubs, allowing just one run across 7 IP in a win over the Tigers. Play Cubs on Run Line
Offense has ruled the day in the Stanley Cup through the first 3 games; 23 goals are the most we've seen during that span going all the way back to 1982. While there were seven goals scored last game it was the lowest event game of the series from an underlying metrics standpoint. Edmonton has shaken up their lines for the pivotal Game 4 and given the embarrassing effort last game, I fully expect their emphasis to be on the defensive end of the ice in an attempt to insulate Skinner cutting down on undisciplined penalties and odd man rushes. Over has been the order of the day thus far but in my opinion that changes tonight.
At the moment, this doesn't feel like some of Edmonton's past series when the Oilers were slow to get going before recovering. The Game 3 meltdown in Sunrise alarmed a steady stream to the penalty box set up power play after power play for the Panthers. Last season, when the Oilers fell behind 3-0 in this finals matchup, it was because goal scoring had dried up, with just four in the first three games, before climbing back into the series by scoring 18 the next three games to force Game Seven. Repeat? Not sure. Stuart Skinner had also been holding up well in goal but he was pulled in Game 3, though he gets another chance tonight. Play Panthers on the Puck Line.