Geography quiz 30 multiple questions
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ERTH 2415 : Natural Disasters
Course Information – Welcome! Video lectures and course content were created by Mareike Adams
Course Instructor:
Samuel Morton ([email protected])
Office hours: Thursdays 10:00 – 11:00, in HP 2125
Teaching Assistants:
Naomi Weinberg ([email protected])
Office hours: Mondays 2:00-3:00 PM in HP2125
Nabil Shawwa ([email protected])
Office hours: Tuesdays 1:00-2:00 PM in HP2125
Yingzhou Li ([email protected])
Office hours: Wednesdays 1:00-2:00 PM in HP2125
Please visit or email us if you have any questions/concerns!
Lectures & CUOL CUOL Web Channel
The CUOL Web Channel will play a recorded video of the lecture on their web
channel:
https://vod.cuol.ca/stream/web-channel
Initial Show Time: Mondays at 1:00 PM – 3:45 PM EST
Repeat Show Time: Tuesdays at 1:30 AM – 4:15 AM EST
Video on Demand (VOD)
For a $50 subscription fee, you can access the recorded videos of the lectures
at any time. You can also rent individual lectures for $6 each.
https://vod.cuol.ca/vod
CUOL Student Centre (Loeb D299)
The CUOL Student Centre has kiosks available to view each lecture for free,
available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.
Lectures can also be freely viewed on campus using computer terminals, such
as those found at the MacOdrum Library.
CUOL Information and Assistance
CUOL website: www.carleton.ca/cuol
Video On Demand login page: https://vod.cuol.ca/vod
CUOL Student Centre: D299 Loeb, 613-520-4055
General Information:
Email: [email protected]
Video on Demand support and questions:
Email: [email protected]
Course Information Optional Texts:
Natural Hazards, 4th or 5th Edition, Edward A. Keller & Duane E. Devecchio
OR
Natural Disasters – Canadian Edition, 4th edition, Abbott, P.L. and Samson, C. 2015
Grading:
Quizzes:
• 4 quizzes – 5% each – multiple choice
• Each will take ~30 min to 1 hr. You will have 3 hours.
• Open on CuLearn for 4 days – but you only have 1 chance to complete it
• Once you have started the quiz it will be open for the allotted time – closing the browser will not stop the clock!
Quizzes: 20%
Midterm Exam: 40%
Final Exam: 40%
Course Information
Quiz breakdown:
Quiz 1 : Lectures 1-3
Quiz 2 : Lectures 4-5
Quiz 3 : Lectures 6-7
Quiz 4 : Lectures 8-10
Quizzes:
• After you finish a quiz, you can immediately see how you scored – but not the questions you missed
• Open book – but you cannot do them in groups!
• Should you experience problems during your Quiz: • Note the time
• Take a screenshot of the problem
• No accommodation will be made to waive or redo a Quiz unless supporting or substantiating documentation is provided
Course Information
Grading:
Exams:
• Midterm Exam will occur on February 29th from 2:30 – 4:30 pm
• Lectures 1-5
• Final Exam will occur during final exam period (Date/Time To Be Announced)
• Lectures 6-11
• Local students, living within 100km of Carleton, write their exams on campus.
• Distance students, living over 100km from campus, will write exams at either
a Carleton University Test Centre or may apply to write the exam at distance
with a proctor. Distance students should apply through CUOL immediately.
Quizzes: 20%
Exam 1: 40%
Exam 2: 40%
NO questions/emails
regarding exams will
be answered on the
day of the actual exam
Course Timeline for Winter 2020
Offshore British Columbia–Southeastern Alaska
2017 Mw 7.1 earthquake, central Mexico
Hurricane Harvey – Category 4
Credit: NASA/NOAA GOES Project Hurricane Irma – Category 4
Hurricane Maria – Category 4 2017 Hurricane Patterns
Hurricane Harvey – Category 4
Credit: NASA/NOAA GOES Project Hurricane Irma – Category 4
Hurricane Maria – Category 4
Is this normal??
Hurricane Sandy (2012)
Map by Robert Simmon, using
data from the NOAA Earth System
Research Laboratory
Course Objectives
• Demonstrate a comprehension of Earth’s geologic, hydrologic and atmospheric processes
• Identify the cause and effect relationships between earth processes and natural hazards
• Assess the associated risks of natural disasters on human societies and identify when a hazard becomes a catastrophe
• Discuss if and how geological catastrophes can be predicted, mitigated, and avoided
• Develop and apply skills in scientific observation, data interpretation and critical thinking
Why Studying Natural Hazards is Important
• Have experienced large, costly, and deadly natural hazards
since 1995
• Deadliest tsunami caused by earthquake in Indian Ocean
• Tsunami in Japan caused by largest and costliest earthquake in
recorded history
• Catastrophic flooding in different areas of the world
• Volcanic eruptions that shut down international airports
• Worst tornado outbreak in U.S. history
• Etc.
Forgan,
Oklahoma
Processes: Internal and External
• Processes • Physical, chemical, and biological ways in which events
affect Earth’s surface
• Internal processes come from forces within Earth • Plate tectonics
• Result of internal energy of Earth
• External processes come from forces on Earth’s surface • Atmospheric effects
• Energy from the Sun
Hazard, Disaster, or Catastrophe
• Hazard - Natural process or event that is a potential threat to human
life or property
• Disaster - Hazardous event that occurs over a limited time in a
defined area - Criteria:
1) Ten or more people killed 2) 100 or more people affected 3) State of emergency is declared 4) International assistance is requested
• Catastrophe - Massive disaster that requires significant amount of money
or time to recover
Natural Disaster ?
A large earthquake occurs:
- In Vancouver:
- On an Arctic Island:
YES
NO
Natural Disaster ?
A large earthquake occurs:
- In Vancouver: YES
- On an Arctic Island: NO
Misnomer
- Gives the impression that disasters are only the
fault of nature
- “Natural” disasters often triggered when society
ignores natural hazards
Natural Hazard?
A large earthquake occurs:
- In Vancouver:
- On an Arctic Island:
A source of danger that exists in the environment
and that has the potential to cause harm.
- Potentially damaging
- Ex. unstable snow on a mountain slope, high water
levels, etc.
YES
YES
Some Major Hazards in Canada
Major Hazards in the United States
Hazard, Disaster, or Catastrophe, cont.
• During past half century, there has been a dramatic
increase in natural disasters :
- Examples: Haitian earthquake, Indonesian tsunami,
Hurricane Katrina
• United Nation: 1990’s “International Decade for
Natural Hazards Reduction”
- Mitigation
• Reduce the effects of something
• Natural disaster preparation
Numbers, Effects, and Causes of Worldwide
Natural Disasters
Numbers, Effects, and Causes of Worldwide
Natural Disasters
• Storms attain category 3 wind speeds
~9 hrs faster than in 1980s
• Global wind speeds have increased
by ~5% over last 20 yrs
• In ground-based records, ~76% of
weather stations in the USA have
seen increases in extreme
precipitation since 1948
• Rainfall totals from tropical cyclones
in North Atlantic have risen at a rate
of 24%/decade since 1988
• Twice as many extreme regional
snowstorms between 1961-2010 than
1900-1960 (William Lau, NASA’s
Goddard Space Flight Center)
• In 2005, Atlantic hurricanes are ~60%
more powerful than in the 1970’s
(Kerry Emanuel, MIT)
Numbers, Effects, and Causes of Worldwide
Natural Disasters
Asia is particularly vulnerable,
why?
Death and Damage caused
by Natural Hazards
• Effects of hazards can differ and change
with time because of changes of
patterns of human land use
• Natural hazards that cause the greatest
loss on human life may not cause the
most property damage
• Hazards vary greatly in their ability to
cause catastrophe
Prediction:
Where would you expect the greatest
damage/economic losses from natural disasters?
A. Poorest nations
B. Developing nations
C. Industrial nations
World Disaster Damage ($$)
0
100
200
300
400
500
Poorest nations Developing nations Industrial nations
Source: ICLR, based on data from International Red Cross P. Kovacs, Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, 2005
US$ billions (2000 prices),1991-2000
Prediction:
Where would you expect the greatest death toll from
natural disasters?
A. Poorest nations
B. Developing nations
C. Industrial nations
World Disaster Fatalities
0
100
200
300
400
Poorest nations Developing nations Industrial nations
Thousands of people, 1991-2000
Source: ICLR, based on data from International Red Cross
P. Kovacs, Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, 2005
Earthquake in Haiti, 2010: A Human-Caused
Catastrophe?
• Earthquake became a catastrophe • Eighty-five percent of people in
Port-au-Prince lived in slum conditions
• Poor conditions lead to 190,000 destroyed or damaged homes • Killed a quarter million people
• Two million homeless with poor sanitation and water quality
• Reason for catastrophe was clear: heavy human footprint • Large number of poorly
constructed buildings
• Population grew so fast
High death totals often related to economic and political factors
Earthquake in Haiti, 2010: A Human-Caused
Catastrophe?
Reason for catastrophe was clear: heavy human footprint • Large number of poorly constructed buildings
• Population grew so fast
• 90% of mountainous regions have been deforested
• Dry, exposed land can easily emphasize massive floods + landslides
Natural Hazards and the Geologic Cycle
• Natural hazards are repetitive
• History of an area gives clues to potential hazards - Maps, historical accounts, climate and weather data
- Rock types, faults, folds, soil composition
• Geologic conditions govern the type, location, and intensity of natural processes
• Collectively, processes are called geologic cycle - Subcycles:
• Tectonic cycle
• Rock cycle
• Hydrologic cycle
• Biogeochemical cycle
The Tectonic Cycle
• Refers to large-scale processes that deform Earth’s crust
and produce landforms
• Driven by forces within Earth (internal energy)
• Involves the creation, destruction, and movement of
tectonic plates
The Rock Cycle
• Rocks are aggregates of one or more minerals
• Recycling of earth materials linked to all other cycles
- Tectonic cycle: heat and energy
- Biogeochemical cycle: materials
- Hydrologic cycle: water for erosion and weathering
• Rocks classified according to how they were formed
in the rock cycle
The Rock Cycle, cont.
• Igneous rocks
- Form from crystallization of magma
• Sedimentary rocks
- Rocks are weathered into sediment by wind and water
- Deposited sediment undergoes lithification
• Metamorphic rocks
- Rocks are changed through extreme heat, pressure, or
chemically active fluids
The Rock Cycle
The Hydrologic Cycle
• Movement of water between atmosphere and oceans
and continents driven by solar energy
• Processes include: evaporation, precipitation, surface
runoff, and subsurface flow
• Water is stored in compartments such as oceans,
atmosphere, rivers, groundwater, etc.
- Residence time is estimated average time that a drop of
water spends in any compartment
- Only a small amount of water is active at any given time
Hydrologic Cycle
Biogeochemical Cycle
• Transfer of chemical elements through a series of reservoirs - Atmosphere, lithosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere
• Related to the three previous cycles - Tectonic cycle: water from volcanic processes; heat and energy
required
- Rock and hydrological cycles: involved in transfer and storing of chemical elements
• Rates of transfer of important chemical elements are only approximate - Carbon, Nitrogen, Phosphorus
The World’s Water Supply (selected examples)
Fundamental Concepts for Understanding
Natural Processes as Hazards
1. Hazards are predictable from scientific evaluation
2. Risk analysis is an important component in our understanding of the effects of hazardous processes
3. Linkages exist between different natural hazards as well as between hazards and the physical environment
4. Hazardous events that previously produced disasters are now producing catastrophes
5. Consequences of hazards can be minimized
1. Hazards are predictable from scientific evaluation
• Location: Where might the event occur?
- Most hazardous areas are mapped
• Probability: How likely is it that the event will occur?
- Estimated based on past events and current conditions
• Precursor events: Could any recent events be a precursor for something else?
Forecast vs Prediction
• Prediction
- Specific date, time, and magnitude of event
• Forecast
- Range of probability for event
Most hazards can only be forecasted
2. Risk Analysis
Risk = (probability of event) x (consequences)
→Live in northern Saskatchewan?
→Live inside the crater of an active volcano?
→Live on the San Andreas fault?
Consequences: damages to people, property, economics, etc.
Acceptable Risk is the amount of risk that an individual or
society is willing to take
Problem: lack of reliable data for either the probability or
consequences
3. Linkages
Hazards may be linked to or cause one other
Hazards linked to earth materials
For example:
• Earthquakes can cause landslides
• Earthquakes and landslides can cause tsunamis
• Volcanic eruptions may be preceded by earthquakes
• Hurricanes can cause flooding
• Drought can make fires worse
• Global warming (climate change) could lead to more hurricanes
• Some rock types are prone to landslides
4. Disasters are now becoming Catastrophes
The world’s population is growing exponentially
• Grows by the addition of a constant percentage of current population
• Has more than tripled in the past 70 years
The Problems:
• Increases number of people at risk
• Reduced availability of food & clean drinking water
• Greater need for energy and waste disposal
Examples:
Mexico City: 10,000 killed in 1985 8.0 earthquake
Izmit, Turkey: >17,000 killed in 1999 earthquakes
20th Century rapid rise in human population
Why does the frequency of natural disasters appear to
be increasing?
Has the frequency of natural hazards increased as well?
Great Natural Disasters 1950-2008
Number of Earthquakes M≥7.0 per Year
Number of Earthquakes M≥7.0 per Year
The number of earthquakes isn’t increasing
The population is!
Magnitude and Frequency of Hazardous Events
• Impact of hazards depend on:
- Magnitude: Amount of energy released (how large is the event)
- Frequency: Interval between occurrences
- Other factors: climate, geology, vegetation, population, and
land use
• Magnitude-frequency concept
- Frequency of an event inversely related to magnitude
• Land use affects magnitude and frequency of events
Metrics to describe hazard levels: Frequency
• Number of similar events per unit time
• Example:
- On average, 4 former tropical cyclones affect
Atlantic Canada every year
- Frequency = 4 occurrences per year
Metrics to describe hazard levels:
Return Period
• Length of time between similar events
• Example:
- Severe hurricanes strike the US on average every
6 years
- This does not mean that there is a severe
hurricane exactly every 6 years!
Metrics to describe hazard levels: Magnitude
• Amount of energy fuelling a natural event
• Example:
- Force of hurricane winds
- Amplitude of ground motion during an earthquake
- Amount of water flowing in a river during a flood
Frequency and Return period
• Two ways to express the same facts:
- Frequency and return period are the inverse of one another
• Ex. Spring and fall heavy rains occur twice a year (frequency)
- So, every ½ year, spring and fall heavy rains occur
Low-magnitude events occur frequently (have a short period)
High-magnitude events are rare (have a long return period)
Frequency = 1
period
Period = 1
frequency
Frequent occurrences are low in magnitude; rare occurrences are high in
magnitude
The larger the event, the longer the return period (recurrence interval)
In general, inverse correlation between
frequency and magnitude of a process
5. Consequences of Hazards can be Minimized
• Primarily reactive in dealing with hazards - Search and rescue - Firefighting - Providing emergency food, water, and shelter
• Need to increase efforts to anticipate disasters and their effects - Land-use planning limitations - Hazard-resistant construction + building codes - Hazard modification or control - Disaster preparedness (e.g. Evacuation plans, insurance) - Control through artificial structures
• Total losses are direct losses and losses related to human actions
5. Consequences of Hazards Can Be Minimized:
Reactive Response
• Effects from a disaster can be ▪ Direct (felt by fewer individuals): people killed or
dislocated, buildings damaged, etc. ▪ Indirect (affect many more people): emotional distress,
donation of money or goods, taxes for recovery, etc.
• Recovery from disaster ▪ Emergency work ▪ Restoration of services and communication lines ▪ Reconstruction
Reducing Risk –
four pillars of emergency management
1. Response Short-term
- Immediate actions to put event under control
2. Recovery Middle-term
- Put situation back to normal
3. Mitigation Long-term
- Actions taken to minimize risk, damage
4. Preparedness Long-term
- Actions taken in advance to ensure people are ready
• New term added in response to climate change issues
- Adaptation Long-term
Potential Natural Disasters in
the Near Future:
“The Big One” (2015-2045)
• The US Geological
Survey’s Third Uniform California
Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)
predicts earthquake eruptions
and states that a magnitude 8.0
or larger earthquake has a 7
percent chance of occurring in
the next 30 years, at present.
• The odds of a magnitude 6.5–7.0
earthquake hitting went up 30
percent.
Wildfires in Canada and the United States
(2015-2050)
• Environmental scientists from
the Harvard School of
Engineering and Applied
Sciences (SEAS) predict that
by 2050, wildfire seasons will
be three weeks longer, twice as
smoky, and will burn a larger
portion of the West per year
• 30,000–50,000 wildfires
predicted to occur annually
Q: What has led to this dramatic increase in wildfire risk?
Canadian Trends
• The # of natural disasters
is increasing with time
• Communities are increasingly
vulnerable:
• Population growth
• Development in risky areas
• Degradation of natural
ecosystems
• Over-reliance on technology
Canadian Trends
• The # of natural disaster
fatalities is decreasing with
time
• Economic losses are mostly
due to weather-related
disasters
• Improved engineering
• Long-term prevention
• Extensive disaster
education
• Better warning systems
• Rapid response
Forecast, prediction, and warning of
hazardous events
• Uniformitarianism
- “The present is the key to the past”
• Human interaction has an effect on geologic processes
- “The present is the key to the future”
• Environmental Unity
- One action causes others in a chain of actions and events
Remember!
“Natural hazards are inevitable, but
natural disasters are not!”
… and the Oscar goes to …
… and the Oscar goes to …