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Lecture1A-Introduction.pdf

ERTH 2415 : Natural Disasters

Course Information – Welcome! Video lectures and course content were created by Mareike Adams

Course Instructor:

Samuel Morton ([email protected])

Office hours: Thursdays 10:00 – 11:00, in HP 2125

Teaching Assistants:

Naomi Weinberg ([email protected])

Office hours: Mondays 2:00-3:00 PM in HP2125

Nabil Shawwa ([email protected])

Office hours: Tuesdays 1:00-2:00 PM in HP2125

Yingzhou Li ([email protected])

Office hours: Wednesdays 1:00-2:00 PM in HP2125

Please visit or email us if you have any questions/concerns!

Lectures & CUOL CUOL Web Channel

The CUOL Web Channel will play a recorded video of the lecture on their web

channel:

https://vod.cuol.ca/stream/web-channel

Initial Show Time: Mondays at 1:00 PM – 3:45 PM EST

Repeat Show Time: Tuesdays at 1:30 AM – 4:15 AM EST

Video on Demand (VOD)

For a $50 subscription fee, you can access the recorded videos of the lectures

at any time. You can also rent individual lectures for $6 each.

https://vod.cuol.ca/vod

CUOL Student Centre (Loeb D299)

The CUOL Student Centre has kiosks available to view each lecture for free,

available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.

Lectures can also be freely viewed on campus using computer terminals, such

as those found at the MacOdrum Library.

CUOL Information and Assistance

CUOL website: www.carleton.ca/cuol

Video On Demand login page: https://vod.cuol.ca/vod

CUOL Student Centre: D299 Loeb, 613-520-4055

General Information:

Email: [email protected]

Video on Demand support and questions:

Email: [email protected]

Course Information Optional Texts:

Natural Hazards, 4th or 5th Edition, Edward A. Keller & Duane E. Devecchio

OR

Natural Disasters – Canadian Edition, 4th edition, Abbott, P.L. and Samson, C. 2015

Grading:

Quizzes:

• 4 quizzes – 5% each – multiple choice

• Each will take ~30 min to 1 hr. You will have 3 hours.

• Open on CuLearn for 4 days – but you only have 1 chance to complete it

• Once you have started the quiz it will be open for the allotted time – closing the browser will not stop the clock!

Quizzes: 20%

Midterm Exam: 40%

Final Exam: 40%

Course Information

Quiz breakdown:

Quiz 1 : Lectures 1-3

Quiz 2 : Lectures 4-5

Quiz 3 : Lectures 6-7

Quiz 4 : Lectures 8-10

Quizzes:

• After you finish a quiz, you can immediately see how you scored – but not the questions you missed

• Open book – but you cannot do them in groups!

• Should you experience problems during your Quiz: • Note the time

• Take a screenshot of the problem

• No accommodation will be made to waive or redo a Quiz unless supporting or substantiating documentation is provided

Course Information

Grading:

Exams:

• Midterm Exam will occur on February 29th from 2:30 – 4:30 pm

• Lectures 1-5

• Final Exam will occur during final exam period (Date/Time To Be Announced)

• Lectures 6-11

• Local students, living within 100km of Carleton, write their exams on campus.

• Distance students, living over 100km from campus, will write exams at either

a Carleton University Test Centre or may apply to write the exam at distance

with a proctor. Distance students should apply through CUOL immediately.

Quizzes: 20%

Exam 1: 40%

Exam 2: 40%

NO questions/emails

regarding exams will

be answered on the

day of the actual exam

Course Timeline for Winter 2020

Offshore British Columbia–Southeastern Alaska

2017 Mw 7.1 earthquake, central Mexico

Hurricane Harvey – Category 4

Credit: NASA/NOAA GOES Project Hurricane Irma – Category 4

Hurricane Maria – Category 4 2017 Hurricane Patterns

Hurricane Harvey – Category 4

Credit: NASA/NOAA GOES Project Hurricane Irma – Category 4

Hurricane Maria – Category 4

Is this normal??

Hurricane Sandy (2012)

Map by Robert Simmon, using

data from the NOAA Earth System

Research Laboratory

Course Objectives

• Demonstrate a comprehension of Earth’s geologic, hydrologic and atmospheric processes

• Identify the cause and effect relationships between earth processes and natural hazards

• Assess the associated risks of natural disasters on human societies and identify when a hazard becomes a catastrophe

• Discuss if and how geological catastrophes can be predicted, mitigated, and avoided

• Develop and apply skills in scientific observation, data interpretation and critical thinking

Why Studying Natural Hazards is Important

• Have experienced large, costly, and deadly natural hazards

since 1995

• Deadliest tsunami caused by earthquake in Indian Ocean

• Tsunami in Japan caused by largest and costliest earthquake in

recorded history

• Catastrophic flooding in different areas of the world

• Volcanic eruptions that shut down international airports

• Worst tornado outbreak in U.S. history

• Etc.

Forgan,

Oklahoma

Processes: Internal and External

• Processes • Physical, chemical, and biological ways in which events

affect Earth’s surface

• Internal processes come from forces within Earth • Plate tectonics

• Result of internal energy of Earth

• External processes come from forces on Earth’s surface • Atmospheric effects

• Energy from the Sun

Hazard, Disaster, or Catastrophe

• Hazard - Natural process or event that is a potential threat to human

life or property

• Disaster - Hazardous event that occurs over a limited time in a

defined area - Criteria:

1) Ten or more people killed 2) 100 or more people affected 3) State of emergency is declared 4) International assistance is requested

• Catastrophe - Massive disaster that requires significant amount of money

or time to recover

Natural Disaster ?

A large earthquake occurs:

- In Vancouver:

- On an Arctic Island:

YES

NO

Natural Disaster ?

A large earthquake occurs:

- In Vancouver: YES

- On an Arctic Island: NO

Misnomer

- Gives the impression that disasters are only the

fault of nature

- “Natural” disasters often triggered when society

ignores natural hazards

Natural Hazard?

A large earthquake occurs:

- In Vancouver:

- On an Arctic Island:

A source of danger that exists in the environment

and that has the potential to cause harm.

- Potentially damaging

- Ex. unstable snow on a mountain slope, high water

levels, etc.

YES

YES

Some Major Hazards in Canada

Major Hazards in the United States

Hazard, Disaster, or Catastrophe, cont.

• During past half century, there has been a dramatic

increase in natural disasters :

- Examples: Haitian earthquake, Indonesian tsunami,

Hurricane Katrina

• United Nation: 1990’s “International Decade for

Natural Hazards Reduction”

- Mitigation

• Reduce the effects of something

• Natural disaster preparation

Numbers, Effects, and Causes of Worldwide

Natural Disasters

Numbers, Effects, and Causes of Worldwide

Natural Disasters

• Storms attain category 3 wind speeds

~9 hrs faster than in 1980s

• Global wind speeds have increased

by ~5% over last 20 yrs

• In ground-based records, ~76% of

weather stations in the USA have

seen increases in extreme

precipitation since 1948

• Rainfall totals from tropical cyclones

in North Atlantic have risen at a rate

of 24%/decade since 1988

• Twice as many extreme regional

snowstorms between 1961-2010 than

1900-1960 (William Lau, NASA’s

Goddard Space Flight Center)

• In 2005, Atlantic hurricanes are ~60%

more powerful than in the 1970’s

(Kerry Emanuel, MIT)

Numbers, Effects, and Causes of Worldwide

Natural Disasters

Asia is particularly vulnerable,

why?

Death and Damage caused

by Natural Hazards

• Effects of hazards can differ and change

with time because of changes of

patterns of human land use

• Natural hazards that cause the greatest

loss on human life may not cause the

most property damage

• Hazards vary greatly in their ability to

cause catastrophe

Prediction:

Where would you expect the greatest

damage/economic losses from natural disasters?

A. Poorest nations

B. Developing nations

C. Industrial nations

World Disaster Damage ($$)

0

100

200

300

400

500

Poorest nations Developing nations Industrial nations

Source: ICLR, based on data from International Red Cross P. Kovacs, Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, 2005

US$ billions (2000 prices),1991-2000

Prediction:

Where would you expect the greatest death toll from

natural disasters?

A. Poorest nations

B. Developing nations

C. Industrial nations

World Disaster Fatalities

0

100

200

300

400

Poorest nations Developing nations Industrial nations

Thousands of people, 1991-2000

Source: ICLR, based on data from International Red Cross

P. Kovacs, Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, 2005

Earthquake in Haiti, 2010: A Human-Caused

Catastrophe?

• Earthquake became a catastrophe • Eighty-five percent of people in

Port-au-Prince lived in slum conditions

• Poor conditions lead to 190,000 destroyed or damaged homes • Killed a quarter million people

• Two million homeless with poor sanitation and water quality

• Reason for catastrophe was clear: heavy human footprint • Large number of poorly

constructed buildings

• Population grew so fast

High death totals often related to economic and political factors

Earthquake in Haiti, 2010: A Human-Caused

Catastrophe?

Reason for catastrophe was clear: heavy human footprint • Large number of poorly constructed buildings

• Population grew so fast

• 90% of mountainous regions have been deforested

• Dry, exposed land can easily emphasize massive floods + landslides

Natural Hazards and the Geologic Cycle

• Natural hazards are repetitive

• History of an area gives clues to potential hazards - Maps, historical accounts, climate and weather data

- Rock types, faults, folds, soil composition

• Geologic conditions govern the type, location, and intensity of natural processes

• Collectively, processes are called geologic cycle - Subcycles:

• Tectonic cycle

• Rock cycle

• Hydrologic cycle

• Biogeochemical cycle

The Tectonic Cycle

• Refers to large-scale processes that deform Earth’s crust

and produce landforms

• Driven by forces within Earth (internal energy)

• Involves the creation, destruction, and movement of

tectonic plates

The Rock Cycle

• Rocks are aggregates of one or more minerals

• Recycling of earth materials linked to all other cycles

- Tectonic cycle: heat and energy

- Biogeochemical cycle: materials

- Hydrologic cycle: water for erosion and weathering

• Rocks classified according to how they were formed

in the rock cycle

The Rock Cycle, cont.

• Igneous rocks

- Form from crystallization of magma

• Sedimentary rocks

- Rocks are weathered into sediment by wind and water

- Deposited sediment undergoes lithification

• Metamorphic rocks

- Rocks are changed through extreme heat, pressure, or

chemically active fluids

The Rock Cycle

The Hydrologic Cycle

• Movement of water between atmosphere and oceans

and continents driven by solar energy

• Processes include: evaporation, precipitation, surface

runoff, and subsurface flow

• Water is stored in compartments such as oceans,

atmosphere, rivers, groundwater, etc.

- Residence time is estimated average time that a drop of

water spends in any compartment

- Only a small amount of water is active at any given time

Hydrologic Cycle

Biogeochemical Cycle

• Transfer of chemical elements through a series of reservoirs - Atmosphere, lithosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere

• Related to the three previous cycles - Tectonic cycle: water from volcanic processes; heat and energy

required

- Rock and hydrological cycles: involved in transfer and storing of chemical elements

• Rates of transfer of important chemical elements are only approximate - Carbon, Nitrogen, Phosphorus

The World’s Water Supply (selected examples)

Fundamental Concepts for Understanding

Natural Processes as Hazards

1. Hazards are predictable from scientific evaluation

2. Risk analysis is an important component in our understanding of the effects of hazardous processes

3. Linkages exist between different natural hazards as well as between hazards and the physical environment

4. Hazardous events that previously produced disasters are now producing catastrophes

5. Consequences of hazards can be minimized

1. Hazards are predictable from scientific evaluation

• Location: Where might the event occur?

- Most hazardous areas are mapped

• Probability: How likely is it that the event will occur?

- Estimated based on past events and current conditions

• Precursor events: Could any recent events be a precursor for something else?

Forecast vs Prediction

• Prediction

- Specific date, time, and magnitude of event

• Forecast

- Range of probability for event

Most hazards can only be forecasted

2. Risk Analysis

Risk = (probability of event) x (consequences)

→Live in northern Saskatchewan?

→Live inside the crater of an active volcano?

→Live on the San Andreas fault?

Consequences: damages to people, property, economics, etc.

Acceptable Risk is the amount of risk that an individual or

society is willing to take

Problem: lack of reliable data for either the probability or

consequences

3. Linkages

Hazards may be linked to or cause one other

Hazards linked to earth materials

For example:

• Earthquakes can cause landslides

• Earthquakes and landslides can cause tsunamis

• Volcanic eruptions may be preceded by earthquakes

• Hurricanes can cause flooding

• Drought can make fires worse

• Global warming (climate change) could lead to more hurricanes

• Some rock types are prone to landslides

4. Disasters are now becoming Catastrophes

The world’s population is growing exponentially

• Grows by the addition of a constant percentage of current population

• Has more than tripled in the past 70 years

The Problems:

• Increases number of people at risk

• Reduced availability of food & clean drinking water

• Greater need for energy and waste disposal

Examples:

Mexico City: 10,000 killed in 1985 8.0 earthquake

Izmit, Turkey: >17,000 killed in 1999 earthquakes

20th Century rapid rise in human population

Why does the frequency of natural disasters appear to

be increasing?

Has the frequency of natural hazards increased as well?

Great Natural Disasters 1950-2008

Number of Earthquakes M≥7.0 per Year

Number of Earthquakes M≥7.0 per Year

The number of earthquakes isn’t increasing

The population is!

Magnitude and Frequency of Hazardous Events

• Impact of hazards depend on:

- Magnitude: Amount of energy released (how large is the event)

- Frequency: Interval between occurrences

- Other factors: climate, geology, vegetation, population, and

land use

• Magnitude-frequency concept

- Frequency of an event inversely related to magnitude

• Land use affects magnitude and frequency of events

Metrics to describe hazard levels: Frequency

• Number of similar events per unit time

• Example:

- On average, 4 former tropical cyclones affect

Atlantic Canada every year

- Frequency = 4 occurrences per year

Metrics to describe hazard levels:

Return Period

• Length of time between similar events

• Example:

- Severe hurricanes strike the US on average every

6 years

- This does not mean that there is a severe

hurricane exactly every 6 years!

Metrics to describe hazard levels: Magnitude

• Amount of energy fuelling a natural event

• Example:

- Force of hurricane winds

- Amplitude of ground motion during an earthquake

- Amount of water flowing in a river during a flood

Frequency and Return period

• Two ways to express the same facts:

- Frequency and return period are the inverse of one another

• Ex. Spring and fall heavy rains occur twice a year (frequency)

- So, every ½ year, spring and fall heavy rains occur

Low-magnitude events occur frequently (have a short period)

High-magnitude events are rare (have a long return period)

Frequency = 1

period

Period = 1

frequency

Frequent occurrences are low in magnitude; rare occurrences are high in

magnitude

The larger the event, the longer the return period (recurrence interval)

In general, inverse correlation between

frequency and magnitude of a process

5. Consequences of Hazards can be Minimized

• Primarily reactive in dealing with hazards - Search and rescue - Firefighting - Providing emergency food, water, and shelter

• Need to increase efforts to anticipate disasters and their effects - Land-use planning limitations - Hazard-resistant construction + building codes - Hazard modification or control - Disaster preparedness (e.g. Evacuation plans, insurance) - Control through artificial structures

• Total losses are direct losses and losses related to human actions

5. Consequences of Hazards Can Be Minimized:

Reactive Response

• Effects from a disaster can be ▪ Direct (felt by fewer individuals): people killed or

dislocated, buildings damaged, etc. ▪ Indirect (affect many more people): emotional distress,

donation of money or goods, taxes for recovery, etc.

• Recovery from disaster ▪ Emergency work ▪ Restoration of services and communication lines ▪ Reconstruction

Reducing Risk –

four pillars of emergency management

1. Response Short-term

- Immediate actions to put event under control

2. Recovery Middle-term

- Put situation back to normal

3. Mitigation Long-term

- Actions taken to minimize risk, damage

4. Preparedness Long-term

- Actions taken in advance to ensure people are ready

• New term added in response to climate change issues

- Adaptation Long-term

Potential Natural Disasters in

the Near Future:

“The Big One” (2015-2045)

• The US Geological

Survey’s Third Uniform California

Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

predicts earthquake eruptions

and states that a magnitude 8.0

or larger earthquake has a 7

percent chance of occurring in

the next 30 years, at present.

• The odds of a magnitude 6.5–7.0

earthquake hitting went up 30

percent.

Wildfires in Canada and the United States

(2015-2050)

• Environmental scientists from

the Harvard School of

Engineering and Applied

Sciences (SEAS) predict that

by 2050, wildfire seasons will

be three weeks longer, twice as

smoky, and will burn a larger

portion of the West per year

• 30,000–50,000 wildfires

predicted to occur annually

Q: What has led to this dramatic increase in wildfire risk?

Canadian Trends

• The # of natural disasters

is increasing with time

• Communities are increasingly

vulnerable:

• Population growth

• Development in risky areas

• Degradation of natural

ecosystems

• Over-reliance on technology

Canadian Trends

• The # of natural disaster

fatalities is decreasing with

time

• Economic losses are mostly

due to weather-related

disasters

• Improved engineering

• Long-term prevention

• Extensive disaster

education

• Better warning systems

• Rapid response

Forecast, prediction, and warning of

hazardous events

• Uniformitarianism

- “The present is the key to the past”

• Human interaction has an effect on geologic processes

- “The present is the key to the future”

• Environmental Unity

- One action causes others in a chain of actions and events

Remember!

“Natural hazards are inevitable, but

natural disasters are not!”

… and the Oscar goes to …

… and the Oscar goes to …